Which Northwest city was hit hardest in 2007? Difficult to say. Each of these cities were hit equally hard.

However, these cities may have narrowly missed the negative equity tide that washed away markets in a number of California cities, especially Vallejo.

In fact, the charts below suggest that the NW is pulling out of a relatively mild real estate slump.

First, Eugene..

Then Portland..

And Seattle..

Thanks again to Zillow for the amazing “open source” statistics!

Popularity: 47% [?]

This is why Zillow is in the game.

Not only are owners (or agents) posting homes for sale before they’re for sale, adding to liquidity AND an even stronger buyer’s market (buyers, that means you need to BUY), but people are also posting homes for less than the Zestimate that shows up right next to the make me move price. That’s either brilliant, or really dumb. Either way..you’ve got to be impressed by the sheer number of “Make me Move” homes that are now listed in Zillow.

Popularity: 39% [?]

These days a lot of people spend time thinking about the value of their home.

Zillow provides homeowners with a statistical margin of error for each county in the nation. For Lane County, their Zestimated Median Margin of Error is 8.2%.

Since Zillow is such an easy to use home valuation resource for owners, most owners would be wise to take advantage of their Create Your Own Estimate toolset to improve upon the accuracy of those Zillow estimates. Owners can make recommendations based on home improvements and different comparable homes.

While Zillow is still a young organization, and their estimates are imperfect, they are following data that appraisers have been using for years, albeit with a much wider margin of error.

Popularity: 34% [?]

I can’t figure out how second homes near the Sierras could trump property tax rates in Eugene. $3200 for a $500k home is about 40% less than anyone would pay for the same home in Eugene. Yet Oregon (and Eugene) is not on Forbes’ list of cities/counties with the priciest property taxes. Huh?

Since property taxes in Eugene are relatively high, I thought I should poll you, the great and powerful reader, to see what you think about replacing some or all of Oregon’s property taxes with a progressive consumption tax.

Here’s your take so far:

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Popularity: 25% [?]

Trulia only shows comparables for quarterly periods, while MLS looks at monthly and yearly appreciation. For Jun-Aug ‘07, Trulia is reporting approximately 4.5% growth in the median sales price. 2.4% growth when comparing Jun-Aug ‘07 vs. Mar-May ‘07. So clearly Trulia is reporting a summer slowdown. Spring was strong, summer slower, but not far below the historical average according to Trulia. Trulia’s numbers are actually conservative relative to the focus of the MLS numbers (mostly on price appreciation vs. ‘06 comparable inventory and # of sales).

According to MLS, Lane County experienced a 7%+ appreciation in the median price of homes. This takes into account the depreciation in some coastal areas, along with the rapid growth of Thurston, the McKenzie Valley, and Junction City. On the other hand, inventory has nearly doubled this summer from the same time last year. Definitely a sign of a summer slowdown. A significant one. A 50% drop in year over year sales with home appreciation in the 7% range is difficult to reconcile. Clearly sellers aren’t dropping price significantly to unload homes, they’re being patient. Hopefully that will continue.

Probably the most interesting metric is the pending sales number. For quite a few areas of Lane County, down 50% from last year. I think this is significant because while many people think of median price as the figure to watch, # of sales indicates the likelihood of actually selling a home. It may be that sellers are holding tight as the Fed drops rates to offset the housing crunch, to invigorate the housing market as they did when they cut rates consistently in 2001-2002.

Clearly the Northwest remains the one bright spot in a national housing market that is in recession, but even the NW may need to hit a bottom before the housing market can climb back to historical averages. The recent Fed rate cut may not be felt for another 7-9 months, so Eugene and Lane County may not hit bottom for another 6-12 months. Some areas of Eugene and Lane County may not need to hit a bottom, given the fluidity of housing prices and the unwillingness of sellers to unload homes at bargain basement prices.

Popularity: 24% [?]

Judging by the numbers of homes closing each week in Trulia, and the 6% annual growth rate in Eugene homes prices reported by Zillow, housing prices and demand for homes in Eugene remains strong.

What’s most interesting to those who follow the local real estate market and home listings, is how Eugene is both resilient to the national housing slump and changing almost monthly:

• Sub-prime lending in Eugene does not compare with the level of sub-prime lending that took place in larger, more exposed and inflationary markets. The vast majority of Eugene homeowners have been conservative about their borrowing, and local lenders conservative about who gets the money.
• The City is finally doing something about downtown - a complete renovation of West Broadway.
• The City is getting serious about the need for another large hospital to handle population growth.
• Phil Knight just donated $100 Million for a new basketball stadium.
• The airport is getting another runway.
• Eugene will host the summer Olympic Trials next year.
• Pottery Barn is opening in the North. There will soon be a new REI in the South. PF Changs opened this year as well.

When you live here it’s easy to take these changes for granted, but the way all of these developments have arrived at once says something about where Eugene is headed. Opportunity and change are happening right in front of us. Both elements are needed to ensure a vital real estate market, and a strong local economy.

Popularity: 29% [?]

Check out the Stats page and you’ll see that the latest Zillow chart shows that Eugene’s HPI is stable at 6% annualized growth. Zillow can provide a useful indicator but is by no means as accurate as the Office of Housing and Enterprise Oversight. Unfortunately the OFHEO stats come out a month or two after the end of the quarter. Look for a post about these stats in mid-May.

Popularity: 9% [?]

CNN let’s you compare Eugene-Springfield to their “top ten places to live.”

The first difference is obvious - job growth. Anemic job growth of 2.76% over FIVE YEARS. The second difference is in Median income. Median income in Boise was comparable to Eugene’s, but with a 12.11% job growth rate? Somehow Boise has laid the groundwork for a business-friendly, living-wage friendly economy.

Eugene City leaders, are you listening?

As for housing - when you compare the average home prices in Eugene-Springfield to that of the top ten, it’s obvious that Eugene has simply caught up with the rest of the nation in media home price ($240-250k). It’s also obvious that unless Eugene can create more sustainable wealth, this boom in housing does not provide young families with the ability to move into a home and invest in the community. Not with an average household income level well below the national average.

Popularity: 9% [?]