Sales activity in Greater Lane County went up in July 2011, as closed and pending sales both saw a rise compared with July of the previous year. Comparing July 2011 with July 2010 shows closed sales were up 15%, while pending sales increased 7.9%. New listings fell 27.6%. See residential highlights table below. A comparison of June 2011 with July 2011 shows that closed sales fell from 297 to 253 (-14.8%). Pending sales were up from 276 to 302 (9.4%). New listings fell from 496 to 491 (-1%).

At the month’s rate of sales, the 2,186 active residential listings would last approximately 8.6 months, 3.3 months lower than inventory in July 2010. Sale Prices Comparing July 2011 to July 2010, the average sale price grew by 0.3%. The median sale price fell 5.8%. Comparing June 2011 to July 2011, the average sale price dropped from $229,000 to $226,200 (-1.2%). The median sale price increased from $182,400 to $192,000 (5.3%).

Year-to-Date

Comparing January-July 2010 with the same period of 2011 shows closed sales dropped 9.3% (1,824 v. 1,654). Pending sales also fell 8.9% (2,040 v. 1,858), while new listings went down 22.5% (4,402 v. 3,413).

For more information, see the July 2011 Market Report.

Courtesy of RMLS.

However, these cities may have narrowly missed the negative equity tide that washed away markets in a number of California cities, especially Vallejo.

In fact, the charts below suggest that the NW is pulling out of a relatively mild real estate slump.

First, Eugene..

Then Portland..

And Seattle..

Thanks again to Zillow for the amazing “open source” statistics!

The WSJ today includes an op-ed article that provides some insight into why high State income and sales taxes drive people away. CA is used a great example; that while the weather in CA, especially So. Cal, is compelling, this has not been enough to keep its immigration balance out of negative territory.

So where does Oregon sit on the list competitive States? Nowhere in the top ten.

Oregon has managed to avoid large-scale home price re-adjustments in 2007. If the State remains economically less competitive than other Western States, there is no guarantee that this impressive NW bubble of home price protection will protect Oregon homeowners for years to come. It’s human nature to believe that during good times, those good times will last forever..

Since property taxes in Eugene are relatively high, I thought I should poll you, the great and powerful reader, to see what you think about replacing some or all of Oregon’s property taxes with a progressive consumption tax.

Here’s your take so far:

[poll=2]

Judging from their blog post, one thing Zillow understands well is that the data can’t explain everything – or WHO is impacted. Local resources/knowledge are necessary to paint a picture of why one region might have declining home prices, while another (read: NW) can continue to grow at 10%+.

One explanation, aside from general desirability for those who don’t mind a little winter rain: growth management. The NW, relative to most other regions in the country, especially relative to the Southeastern US, tends to push a controlled pattern of development in which city and county counselors, as well as the citizenry assert significant influence over new and existing development projects.

Does this mean that counselors should be responsible for also providing the public with adequate living wage housing for those who can’t afford to get into a starter home at $200k+? You bet. A single income mother with three children, unless she’s a lawyer, is unlikely to be in a position to buy a starter home in the Northwest.

I don’t accept that housing prices would decline if people who previously couldn’t buy a starter home, could find options in the $120-170k range. Those people would not have contributed to the housing boom in the first place, although by renting they apply pressure to the speculative and rental market in a way that might depress home prices initially. Free markets are great for many, but they are a numbers game, a zero sum game that doesn’t determine a person’s true value to society. Eugene should attempt to do more than just limit development for the privileged 60% (Friends of Eugene) who already own a home or are established here.