Oregon manages to cherry-pick consumers from CA and WA, mostly along the State borders, by holding to a “no sales tax” policy. High hotel/motel room taxes help to make up for this, and the dollars spent in Oregon add to economic competitiveness, although there may be better ways to lure dollars and jobs to Oregon.

The WSJ today includes an op-ed article that provides some insight into why high State income and sales taxes drive people away. CA is used a great example; that while the weather in CA, especially So. Cal, is compelling, this has not been enough to keep its immigration balance out of negative territory.

So where does Oregon sit on the list competitive States? Nowhere in the top ten.

Oregon has managed to avoid large-scale home price re-adjustments in 2007. If the State remains economically less competitive than other Western States, there is no guarantee that this impressive NW bubble of home price protection will protect Oregon homeowners for years to come. It’s human nature to believe that during good times, those good times will last forever..

Popularity: 32% [?]

Trulia only shows comparables for quarterly periods, while MLS looks at monthly and yearly appreciation. For Jun-Aug ‘07, Trulia is reporting approximately 4.5% growth in the median sales price. 2.4% growth when comparing Jun-Aug ‘07 vs. Mar-May ‘07. So clearly Trulia is reporting a summer slowdown. Spring was strong, summer slower, but not far below the historical average according to Trulia. Trulia’s numbers are actually conservative relative to the focus of the MLS numbers (mostly on price appreciation vs. ‘06 comparable inventory and # of sales).

According to MLS, Lane County experienced a 7%+ appreciation in the median price of homes. This takes into account the depreciation in some coastal areas, along with the rapid growth of Thurston, the McKenzie Valley, and Junction City. On the other hand, inventory has nearly doubled this summer from the same time last year. Definitely a sign of a summer slowdown. A significant one. A 50% drop in year over year sales with home appreciation in the 7% range is difficult to reconcile. Clearly sellers aren’t dropping price significantly to unload homes, they’re being patient. Hopefully that will continue.

Probably the most interesting metric is the pending sales number. For quite a few areas of Lane County, down 50% from last year. I think this is significant because while many people think of median price as the figure to watch, # of sales indicates the likelihood of actually selling a home. It may be that sellers are holding tight as the Fed drops rates to offset the housing crunch, to invigorate the housing market as they did when they cut rates consistently in 2001-2002.

Clearly the Northwest remains the one bright spot in a national housing market that is in recession, but even the NW may need to hit a bottom before the housing market can climb back to historical averages. The recent Fed rate cut may not be felt for another 7-9 months, so Eugene and Lane County may not hit bottom for another 6-12 months. Some areas of Eugene and Lane County may not need to hit a bottom, given the fluidity of housing prices and the unwillingness of sellers to unload homes at bargain basement prices.

Popularity: 24% [?]

According to this story in The Seattle Times.

Jon over at Rain City Guide posted about it, and then a hilariously sarcastic and entertaining comment dialog ensued. This began with a comment posted by Timothy Ellis of Seattlebubble.com.

This reminds me a lot of what I see on Yahoo equity (stocks) message boards. A lot of flame posts by longs and shorts. Mostly by shorts however, who are always trying to rock the boat and drive the stock price down. These people see themselves as the independent voice, the underdog. The boat needs to be rocked sometimes. It’s good for debate, for a reality check. Unfortunately, it’s also annoying.

The only complaint I have about bubble blogs (and loud shorts for that matter), is that they’re all about price, and outcome. They’re banking on a trend. In fact, they’re selling it. There’s no room for optimism in the equation - so it’s the unrealistic flip side of the bubble coin - “There is/was a bubble, ergo, we are the anti-bubble” - There’s no middle ground.

Apparently this frustrates people who make a living in the real estate economy. Go figure?

Popularity: 10% [?]