Trulia only shows comparables for quarterly periods, while MLS looks at monthly and yearly appreciation. For Jun-Aug ‘07, Trulia is reporting approximately 4.5% growth in the median sales price. 2.4% growth when comparing Jun-Aug ‘07 vs. Mar-May ‘07. So clearly Trulia is reporting a summer slowdown. Spring was strong, summer slower, but not far below the historical average according to Trulia. Trulia’s numbers are actually conservative relative to the focus of the MLS numbers (mostly on price appreciation vs. ‘06 comparable inventory and # of sales).

According to MLS, Lane County experienced a 7%+ appreciation in the median price of homes. This takes into account the depreciation in some coastal areas, along with the rapid growth of Thurston, the McKenzie Valley, and Junction City. On the other hand, inventory has nearly doubled this summer from the same time last year. Definitely a sign of a summer slowdown. A significant one. A 50% drop in year over year sales with home appreciation in the 7% range is difficult to reconcile. Clearly sellers aren’t dropping price significantly to unload homes, they’re being patient. Hopefully that will continue.

Probably the most interesting metric is the pending sales number. For quite a few areas of Lane County, down 50% from last year. I think this is significant because while many people think of median price as the figure to watch, # of sales indicates the likelihood of actually selling a home. It may be that sellers are holding tight as the Fed drops rates to offset the housing crunch, to invigorate the housing market as they did when they cut rates consistently in 2001-2002.

Clearly the Northwest remains the one bright spot in a national housing market that is in recession, but even the NW may need to hit a bottom before the housing market can climb back to historical averages. The recent Fed rate cut may not be felt for another 7-9 months, so Eugene and Lane County may not hit bottom for another 6-12 months. Some areas of Eugene and Lane County may not need to hit a bottom, given the fluidity of housing prices and the unwillingness of sellers to unload homes at bargain basement prices.

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