According to this story in The Seattle Times.

Jon over at Rain City Guide posted about it, and then a hilariously sarcastic and entertaining comment dialog ensued. This began with a comment posted by Timothy Ellis of Seattlebubble.com.

This reminds me a lot of what I see on Yahoo equity (stocks) message boards. A lot of flame posts by longs and shorts. Mostly by shorts however, who are always trying to rock the boat and drive the stock price down. These people see themselves as the independent voice, the underdog. The boat needs to be rocked sometimes. It’s good for debate, for a reality check. Unfortunately, it’s also annoying.

The only complaint I have about bubble blogs (and loud shorts for that matter), is that they’re all about price, and outcome. They’re banking on a trend. In fact, they’re selling it. There’s no room for optimism in the equation - so it’s the unrealistic flip side of the bubble coin - “There is/was a bubble, ergo, we are the anti-bubble” - There’s no middle ground.

Apparently this frustrates people who make a living in the real estate economy. Go figure?

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CNN let’s you compare Eugene-Springfield to their “top ten places to live.”

The first difference is obvious - job growth. Anemic job growth of 2.76% over FIVE YEARS. The second difference is in Median income. Median income in Boise was comparable to Eugene’s, but with a 12.11% job growth rate? Somehow Boise has laid the groundwork for a business-friendly, living-wage friendly economy.

Eugene City leaders, are you listening?

As for housing - when you compare the average home prices in Eugene-Springfield to that of the top ten, it’s obvious that Eugene has simply caught up with the rest of the nation in media home price ($240-250k). It’s also obvious that unless Eugene can create more sustainable wealth, this boom in housing does not provide young families with the ability to move into a home and invest in the community. Not with an average household income level well below the national average.

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Coinciding with their 2006 home values report, Zillow also blogged about it.

Judging from their blog post, one thing Zillow understands well is that the data can’t explain everything - or WHO is impacted. Local resources/knowledge are necessary to paint a picture of why one region might have declining home prices, while another (read: NW) can continue to grow at 10%+.

One explanation, aside from general desirability for those who don’t mind a little winter rain: growth management. The NW, relative to most other regions in the country, especially relative to the Southeastern US, tends to push a controlled pattern of development in which city and county counselors, as well as the citizenry assert significant influence over new and existing development projects.

Does this mean that counselors should be responsible for also providing the public with adequate living wage housing for those who can’t afford to get into a starter home at $200k+? You bet. A single income mother with three children, unless she’s a lawyer, is unlikely to be in a position to buy a starter home in the Northwest.

I don’t accept that housing prices would decline if people who previously couldn’t buy a starter home, could find options in the $120-170k range. Those people would not have contributed to the housing boom in the first place, although by renting they apply pressure to the speculative and rental market in a way that might depress home prices initially. Free markets are great for many, but they are a numbers game, a zero sum game that doesn’t determine a person’s true value to society. Eugene should attempt to do more than just limit development for the privileged 60% (Friends of Eugene) who already own a home or are established here.

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Zillow has posted their 4th quarter home value reports (Excel format).

Values dropped by .36% from 3rd quarter. That’s an annual decline of 1.44%. Naturally, values are almost 9% higher than Q4 2005.

What’s strange is that two of my neighbors placed their homes on the market, and within several days both houses sold for 20-25% more than their Zillow prices.

According to Zillow, the price of my home continues to decline ever-so-slightly, but I’m not concerned. It’s gone from a speculator’s market to a home buyer’s market. The market will flatten until boomers start to truly “retire” - and I’m holding tight.

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